Post by account_disabled on Dec 11, 2023 21:07:50 GMT -6
SCB CIO also recommends investing cautiously. Focus on quality assets (Flight to Quality) during periods of high interest rates. and increased geopolitical risks. Although this war was less violent. But with lessons from the Yom Kippur War that happened in 1973, it had a wide impact on the investment world. Both the oil market, the economy, the money market, and the world capital market had a severe effect, causing the prices of risky assets, especially the stock market, to fall sharply in the 6 months after the war. The price of oil has accelerated, causing inflation from the supply side to accelerate as well.
At that time, the price of oil increased from 4.6 dollars per barrel to 15.5 dollars per barrel within 6 months, resulting in the economy Inflation accelerates Especially the United States Inflation increased from 3% to 12%, increasing US bond yields. and the US dollar index has Email Data accelerated. We recommend managing geopolitical risks by investing in diversified commodities and cautiously investing in risky assets. In addition, we have adjusted our outlook to gradually accumulate or Slightly positive US stocks (from previously recommending Hold) for reasons. At the value (Valuation) of the US stock market dropped to an interesting level From the ratio of the expected price to earnings per share in the next 5 years (5 year fwd P/E) of the S&P500 stock market, which was highest at 19.0 times in July 2023, this figure has decreased to 17.25 times.
With a volatility of only -0.4 SD, there are also factors that the Fed should clearly stop raising interest rates. As for the US economy There is a tendency to just slow down (Soft landing), inflation slows down. As a result, we are beginning to see a trend of improving earnings estimates for listed companies in the United States. In terms of the latest overview of operating results of listed companies in the 3rd quarter of 2023 in the S&P 500 (data up to 25 Oct. 2023), it was found that budgets have been announced for 29% of all companies, with 78% of companies having already announced. It came out better than analysts expected, led by the Technology (IT), Health Care (Health Care) and Consumer Staple (Consumer Staple) groups, while companies in the Mega Cap 10 group which have the largest market capitalization Most of the 10 companies performed better than analysts expected.
At that time, the price of oil increased from 4.6 dollars per barrel to 15.5 dollars per barrel within 6 months, resulting in the economy Inflation accelerates Especially the United States Inflation increased from 3% to 12%, increasing US bond yields. and the US dollar index has Email Data accelerated. We recommend managing geopolitical risks by investing in diversified commodities and cautiously investing in risky assets. In addition, we have adjusted our outlook to gradually accumulate or Slightly positive US stocks (from previously recommending Hold) for reasons. At the value (Valuation) of the US stock market dropped to an interesting level From the ratio of the expected price to earnings per share in the next 5 years (5 year fwd P/E) of the S&P500 stock market, which was highest at 19.0 times in July 2023, this figure has decreased to 17.25 times.
With a volatility of only -0.4 SD, there are also factors that the Fed should clearly stop raising interest rates. As for the US economy There is a tendency to just slow down (Soft landing), inflation slows down. As a result, we are beginning to see a trend of improving earnings estimates for listed companies in the United States. In terms of the latest overview of operating results of listed companies in the 3rd quarter of 2023 in the S&P 500 (data up to 25 Oct. 2023), it was found that budgets have been announced for 29% of all companies, with 78% of companies having already announced. It came out better than analysts expected, led by the Technology (IT), Health Care (Health Care) and Consumer Staple (Consumer Staple) groups, while companies in the Mega Cap 10 group which have the largest market capitalization Most of the 10 companies performed better than analysts expected.